Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Live-blogging the N.C. and Indiana primaries

Got my carcass parked in front of MSNBC for the big night.

The polls are still open in North Carolina and Indiana. But Chris Matthews just speculated: “I still think it’s a possible double- header for Barack Obama.” And he interrogated Pat Buchanan and Rachel Maddow about what might happen if Obama does win both.

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will win N.C. and Hillary Clinton will win Indiana. If it goes any other way, shit’s gonna get crazy tonight. ...

3:08 p.m. (Pacific Time) – Do Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann not like each other? Chris isn’t bothering to laugh politely at Keith’s quasi-witty remarks. ...

5:25 p.m. – Looks like Obama has won North Carolina big time. But the Indiana race hasn’t yet been called by NBC. Evidently, though, Obama will lose there.

So far I haven’t heard anybody on MSNBC mention what I think is the story: that Jeremiah Wright cost Barack Obama the state of Indiana.

Eleven days ago, Obama was ahead of Hillary in Indiana 41 percent to 38 percent, with the rest undecided, according to an Indianapolis Star poll. And then Rev. Wright strutted into the spotlight, dominating the political discussion for days.

On CNN last Monday, David Gergen predicted that the Rev. Wright shenanigans could turn Indiana against Obama. Sure enough, that looks to be the case.

Think about that. If not for Jeremiah Wright, this race could’ve been over tonight. ...

6:00 p.m. – CBS has projected Hillary Clinton the winner in Indiana. But NBC political director Chuck Todd still refuses to make a call... because, he says, some big black districts haven’t reported their numbers.

Todd says it’s still “plausible” that Obama could eke out a win in Indiana. We shall see. ...

6:55 p.m. – Barack Obama looked to have his confidence back during his victory speech in North Carolina. But I think he went a little too far when he said, “I... am... Iron Man!”

7:45 p.m. – Hillary’s talking right now in Indiana. I know her campaign is hard-up for cash, but I think it’s uncool the way she literally begs for money during a victory speech. This isn’t the first time she’s done it. ...

8:42 p.m. – A measure of how bad this night turned out for the Hillary campaign could be seen on CNN a few minutes ago.

High-level Clintonista Lanny Davis just unloaded a sputtering, stammering, sour-pussed tirade, accusing CNN analyst Bill Schneider of putting a pro-Obama spin on tonight’s vote counts. And he bitched out commentator David Gergen for calling him (Lanny) “bitter” (because they couldn’t get new elections in Florida and Michigan).

Gergen came back and said, almost with a smirk, that he has not seen tonight “the gracious Lanny Davis that I know so well.”

Lanny Davis was defensive, unpleasant, he was personalizing shit. I mean, daggone... attacking CNN on CNN? Is that any way to celebrate a win in Indiana? (Oh, by the way... Indiana is still too close to call, according to CNN and MSNBC.)

If Lanny Davis reflects the mood of his candidate, Hillary must be pretty pissed off tonight. Real interesting to watch, because of what it revealed. ...

9:20 p.m. – Holy shit! Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her public events for tomorrow. Could this thing be over?

Tim Russert sure thinks so. On MSNBC, he just made that sports analogy about, “When do you tell a ballplayer it’s time to hang up the glove? This is their life, they don’t want to do it...”

What a strange night this has been. Before the polls closed, Clintonista Terry McAuliffe was beaming with joy... saying it looked like Hillary might carry Indiana by a 5- to 8-point margin.

Now, the pundits are damn-near calling the whole thing over. Just because Indiana is still too close to call.

I must say, it’s pretty remarkable that Obama has bounced back after the worst week of his political life. ...

9:25 p.m. – Pat Buchanan on the Clinton campaign: “This is the night the music died.”

10:16 p.m. – With 99 percent of the vote in, Hillary Clinton has squeaked out a victory in Indiana, 51 percent to Obama’s 49 percent.

As Chuck Todd just pointed out, here’s the big picture: Barack Obama now leads Clinton by 160 pledged delegates and 700,000 actual votes. Even if you threw the disputed Michigan and Florida results into the mix, Obama would still be ahead by both measures.

Time to call Barack Obama “the Comeback Kid” and move on to new business. I’m done. Good night, y’all.

22 comments:

Joe Crawford (artlung) said...

Do I have this right: North Carolina Polls close at 7:30pm Eastern/4:30 Pacific; Indiana Polls closed at 6pm Eastern/3pm Pacific ?

Malcolm said...

It's days like this when I miss David Brinkley.

Long before there was cable news and "opinion TV", Brinkley was the master of calling a spade a spade.

With his deadpan voice, he could get to the cynical heart of the matter.

I remember during one convention, he said something to the effect of: "and now we have the spontaneous cheering; well planned for weeks, timed to the second, with a good chance of baloons falling a few minutes before the end".

Undercover Black Man said...

Joe, you got it right. Indiana's polls are now closed.

Malcolm: You got me missing Brinkley now too. Tom Brokaw doesn't come close. Nobody does, really.

jjbrock said...

Obama has won North Carolina.

LennieG said...

I don't believe Barack was ever going to win Indiana. She was going to win by at least a few points. The make up is similar to Pennsylvania and Ohio.

YIPEE to North Carolina for IGNORING Faux News, IGNORING Rush Limbaugh, and NOT falling for the okey doke!

Kellybelle said...

I hate to think it's true, but I agree, but for Rev. Wright, this might be over. My soul hurts. At least he won NC.

phx said...

I truly think Barak's gonna get over this whole Rev. Wright thing. But as a white person, damn, I'm concerned. I think Michelle's going to hold a grudge.

LennieG said...

Where are you David? I thought you were live blogging. Have you fallen asleep at your computer? LOL

LennieG said...

Oh, I think you and I are on separate coasts. I'm in Maryland. Where are you located? It's 10:52 here.

Wanda said...

lol. david's on the opposite coast. he's sleeping when we're working and up and going when we're laying down. :)

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Plus I took an "American Idol" break. Bad live-blogger! Bad!

eeaster said...

Do Keith and Chris not like each other? Please. Did you read the NYT magazine piece on Chris Matthews? Everybody Hates Chris - including Tim Russert.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ I've been saving that article for a rainy day.

Jeff said...

David, glad you're back. I hope you've recovered from Jason's performance of "I Shot the Sheriff."

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Boy, that was rough. I think you were a little hard on Archuleta, though. I thought he did a great job with "Stand By Me."

Jeff said...

I admit that I've lost all perspective when it comes to David A. But I'm working on an "Archuleta fantasy" post that I hope will make up for it - sometime in the next couple of weeks.

Andrew said...

David, this was my favorite live-blog of yours yet, mostly because your overall opinion seemed to be changing with every update.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Thanks, Andrew... I think.

The game sure did seem to change hour by hour. At lunch today, I was just telling somebody how Clinton seemed to be hitting her stride on the campaign trail and Obama looked tired.

The speeches tonight, however, conveyed the exact opposite.

Anonymous said...

She's finally toast.

Her options, her money, and her superdelegates are going to be drying up very rapidly.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Especially the money.

cuz said...

Sweet.

I heard she's had to go into her personal Crown Royal stash to juice up the campaign for the next run. Never a good sign when the candidate has to go into their personal pockets. We don't know if it's to keep going or pay the bills that are starting to pile up. I guess it's the white collar multi-millionaire’s dilemma.

Phelps said...

I wouldn't count Clinton out. NC was Obama's last easy win. And if you really think that Clinton is as Machiavellian as people make her out to be, remember that she would be too old to run again in 2016... but not 2012.