Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Live-blogging the Pennsylvania primary

First things first: This is my 1,000th post on this blog! One thousand. I didn’t know I could stick with it this long.

Thanks to all who’ve ever stopped by here and read my stuff. Extra thanks to all who have commented.

Now, the polls are still open in Pennsylvania, but MSNBC has kicked in with its marathon coverage. That’s where I’ll be spending most of my time... with Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, Pat Buchanan, Tim Russert, Gene Robinson, and hopefully Joe Scarborough and Tucker Carlson somewhere in the mix.

Plus, of course, the ringmasters: Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann.

I’ll jump over to CNN and Fox News from time to time... try and catch a glimpse of Amy Holmes, ya dig?... but MSNBC is the place to be.

More to come... especially after the polls close in 102 minutes...

4:53 p.m. (Pacific Time) – MSNBC has smartly paired former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. with former Congressman Joe Scarborough for a commentary block labeled “The Insiders.”

With minutes still to go before the polls close, there’s a stench of defeat in the air for Barack Obama. “Clearly something is not working,” Harold Ford said.

He just now said that if Obama loses by 8 to 10 percent of the popular vote, “There are legitimate questions to be raised about Barack.”

Ford added that, if he were advising the Obama campaign tomorrow, he would say: “You’ve gotta get out there, you’ve gotta get in touch with these blue-collar workers.” ...

5:37 p.m. – It just got feisty over on CNN...

Republican Bill Bennett used his seat at CNN's partisans’ roundtable to wage guilt-by-association warfare against Obama... especially hammering the “Weather Underground” connection.

Then Democrat Donna Brazile jumped in Bill Bennett’s shit.

Brazile said if we question all of Barack Obama’s associations, we need to question all of Clinton’s and McCain’s associations too. Bennett shot back: Not all of Obama’s associations should be questioned... just associations with former terrorists.

Oh... and Bennett is rocking a flag pin on his lapel. But so is (Clintonite) Paul Begala. Accident? Coincidence? No way, Jose. ...

5:51 p.m. – Meanwhile, over on Fox News, Megyn Kelly’s lip gloss be poppin’...

6:03 p.m. – The TV networks are officially projecting Hillary Clinton the winner. And MSNBC analyst Howard Fineman just said: “The arms are being twisted right now.”

He said phone calls have gone out to six members of Congress... six undeclared superdelegates... to convince them it’s time to stand up for Hillary.

Fineman said the Clinton campaign now must convert this victory into a bunch of new fundraising and some new superdelegates. (As the snarky folks say, “Good luck with that.”) ...

6:15 p.m. – Harold Ford, Jr. on MSNBC: “My message to my friend Barack Obama is very clear: You have got to win Indiana.”

7:33 p.m. – Hillary just rocked her victory speech. “I might stumble and I might get knocked down,” she said. “But as long as you’ll stand with me, I will always get right back up.”

All of that I’m-a-fighter stuff she’s been talking for months is finally starting to make sense to me. ...

8:18 p.m. – Chris Matthews: “I think Barack Obama has a problem with working white people.”

I think that will be a dominant media meme in the coming days.

Before Barack Obama made his concession speech, Tim Russert said: “The next two weeks are going to be incredible.” He thinks the lesson Hillary will take from her Pennsylvania victory is to ratchet up her say-anything, do-anything tactics.

So... in the face of a momentum shift, with a different tone in the media regarding Obama’s strength as a candidate and with Hillary Clinton pumped up and confident, the “delegate math” doesn’t seem so determinative tonight.

The next two weeks will, indeed, be incredible.

10:44 p.m. – Before I say good night, I just want to mention something. Hillary’s victory tonight brings to mind a phrase. Perhaps you’ve heard it. “Fake it till you make it.”

In this context, it means that months of talking about how “tough” she is... what a “fighter” she is... while getting her ass whipped at the polls... it’s finally turning into genuine toughness, a confident fighting spirit.

Here’s a message posted tonight on the Hillary for President website, over Sen. Clinton’s signature:

“Thanks to you, we won a critically important victory tonight in Pennsylvania. It’s a giant step forward that will transform the landscape of the presidential race. And it couldn’t have happened without your generous support.

“There will be much more to do beginning tomorrow. But tonight, let’s just celebrate the fact that you and I are part of a remarkable community of people tough enough, passionate enough, and determined enough to win big when everything is on the line.”

Fake it till you make it.

Now... if you’re an Obama supporter, whatchu gonna do?

Good night.

89 comments:

New Black Woman said...

Keep us updated!

phx said...

And keep it up. I'm always inspired here.

Invisible Woman said...

Congrats, UBM--I'm glad you stuck it out...what a great way to make your 1000th post.

I'll be trolling around here for the updates--keep em fast and furious :-)

C Marquardt said...

Speaking of Norah O'Donnell, depending on how representative MSNBC's exit polling is of the entire state, she may have inadvertently if obliquely revealed that Hillary will be winning this one by a wide margin: 55 to 42 or thereabouts.

She showed results of a question asking who voters believed would win the Democratic primary. Results: 53% thought Barack would; 44% thought Hillary would. Then she mentioned that, interestingly, 20% of Hillary's voters had said they thought it would be Barack. Hmmm...

44 = 0.80h
53 = b + 0.20h (assuming no Barack voters thought Hillary would be the nominee)

Multiply that last equation by 4:
4*(53) = 4*(b + 0.20h)
to get
212 = 4b + 0.80h (and subtract the first equation)
-44 = -0.80h

which means that:
212 - 44 = 4b
or
168 = 4b
or
Barack voters were 42% of respondents and Hillary voters were (44/0.80) = 55% of voters.

Hillary wins by 13%. Not the result I was hoping for, but we will know in an hour or so. : )

Kellybelle said...

Congratulations on yr 1000th! This blog opened up a whole new world for me. Thanks!

Dougfp said...

Bennett is a buffoon. A pure partisan spewing Republican talking points under the guise of analysis. Let's talk about his relationships with his dominatrix, the slot machines in Vegas, and the all-you-can-eat buffet table.

New Black Woman said...

Sen. Clinton is projected to take Pennsylvania. What do you think?

phx said...

If she can take it by 10 or more percentage points, then she can make a case to stay in. Otherwise...

CIVIL said...

let`s get this rigth!!
CLINTON [bill},HILLARY,BEGALA and
other good {wo}men time to take our gov:back.

Undercover Black Man said...

Kellybelle, thanks so much. And IW, thanks for linking here today.

Doug: Speaking of Republican talking points, I just can't bear to sit through KARL ROVE playing the role of "political analyst" on Fox "News"!

Undercover Black Man said...

New Black Woman: This loss does take some of the magic glow off of Obama.

Nobody has creamed harder over Obama since Iowa than Chris Matthews. And tonight, Matthews critiqued Obama's campaigning style in blue-collar Pennsylvania by saying, "It's too debonair. It's too Fred Astaire."

Things can turn like that.

Robbo said...

Good to see this! Yes!

There hasn't been any electronic voting machine shenanigans have there?

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"New Black Woman: This loss does take some of the magic glow off of Obama."

Oh come on David. Clinton going from a 20% point lead to 52% of that lead evaporating to an 8% lead spells taking the gloss off Obama?

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Indeed. "Close" only counts in horseshoes, hoss. Obama had six weeks and unlimited money... and he couldn't make it tight.

Give Hillary her due.

Michael Fisher said...

Chris Mathews:

"Barack Obama has a problem working white people"

Mills...

"Obama had six weeks and unlimited money... and he couldn't make it tight."

David, he cut that lead despite his basic problem: Being non-white.

What do you think where Obama would be if he had your skin color and hair consistency?

Undercover Black Man said...

What do you think where Obama would be if he had your skin color and hair consistency?

Uhhh... if you're gonna keep talking about my looks, Michael, do me the favor of being less Socratic and more declarative.

In other words, say what the fuck's on your mind. Make a statement that can be argued about.

Michael Fisher said...

By the way, David. You know what's gonna happen if Obama loses either the nomination or the race for the Presidency, yes?

Nmaely this:

Farrakhan is gonna be popular as never before in the African-American community and can become a player of unprecedented proportions.

Mark my word.

Michael Fisher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"Uhhh... if you're gonna keep talking about my looks, Michael, do me the favor of being less Socratic and more declarative.

In other words, say what the fuck's on your mind. Make a statement that can be argued about."


Looks is everything on this planet these days, David.

Light skinned folk on the average have it easier than dark skinned folk. That applies to me and that applies to you.

The "whiter" you look the better it is. Like I said, given your looks certain experiences are available to you that are not available to a darker-skinned person. Moreover, you don't have to go through experiences a darker skinned person has to go through. That shit is very real. Thus my question from before "are you sure you are not functioning as a white person?"

Undercover Black Man said...

Farrakhan is gonna be popular as never before in the African-American community and can become a player of unprecedented proportions.

Mark my word.


I would bet money against that, Michael. As much as black folks like sports... if Obama loses the nomination, I bet people be like, "He didn't knock the bitch out. He didn't get it done."

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"I bet people be like, 'He didn't knock the bitch out. He didn't get it done'.

Which demonstrates how far removed from the black community you are.

With some 90% of Black Americans supporting Obama you gonna think they're gonna blame Barack?

What an Obama loss will make clear to Black folks is that Clinton or McCain won due to the racist shit they threw at Obama.

We're gonna have a Black population that voted as a block for a black candidate who was conciliatory without looking like a Tom. Yet still...

It's gonna be a field day for Black Nationalists.

Since Farrakhan has the only viable nationwide organization to capitalize on the political resentment - He'll have won.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ We'll see, slick. I remember 2007. Barack Obama wasn't the vessel of black people's hopes and dreams before he won Iowa.

Fuck, Michael, he's not the vessel of black people's hopes and dreams now! He's not Martin Luther King.

He's a guy in the big game and most black folks are rooting for him to win... like rooting for the home team.

If Obama loses, how the hell can you even shape your mouth to say it will be a grand moment of disillusionment for black America??

I hope Obama wins the nomination. But if he doesn't, I will press you to provide evidence for the horseshit you just put forward in this thread.

dez said...

You can't keep a good woman down. Or Hillary Clinton, for that matter ;-)

Congrats on post #1000, Undercover BlabberMouth ;-) Hee hee!

Dougfp said...

Obama's Ali and Clinton's Frazier...it's the fourteenth round in Manila. Problem is...Clinton ain't lettin' Eddie Futch throw in the towel.

onefinemess said...

Man, she's really gonna blow that coupla extra delegates up like it's something isn't she?

I love how she's going to argue that the "winner" is not really the winner. Only in America? (Or Zimbabwe, PS thanks for all those updates!) At least by CNN's math she's 150 delegates behind - that won't change much with a 10% lead in Penn.

I stand by my original prediction (ranted about frequently outside of blogland) that even if she wins, she's still going to tear the democratic party apart.

Mind you, that could be a very good thing - boy would I love to see a 3rd political party supported by Obama's political machine. That would be something wouldn't it? I just don't think it's an even trade for 4 years of a Hillary presidency.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ Except Clinton won the round, Doug.

A 10-point margin is a frickin' embarrassment for a man who went around thinking he could close any gap.

Don't play the Clintons light! That's gotta be the message Obama takes away from this night!

Less floating like a butterfly... more stinging like a bee!

Michael Fisher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"horse shit" ..." like rooting for the home team."

And what, David is the concept of "home team" all about? Flag and apple pie. Group think and group action. Nationalism.

Barack Obama is Black America's reconciliation candidate. He's the peace pipe.

If that pipe is rejected...

"Horse shit"?

Where do you live David? Anywhere in the black community? At least in the middle class black community?

Do you function as a black person in your daily life?

How could it possibly be that you are that far removed from the daily expressed sentiment of African Americans?

Undercover Black Man said...

How could it possibly be that you are that far removed from the daily expressed sentiment of African Americans?

What black people do you know who say that if Obama doesn't become president, they're gonna cast their lot with the Nation of Islam?

If Obama doesn't win... that will mean that Obama didn't win.

He is not entitled to the presidency, Michael. He has to win it.

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"What black people do you know who say that if Obama doesn't become president, they're gonna cast their lot with the Nation of Islam?"

Now who said that?

I said that Farrakhan will become the most influential black politician in the African-American community.

That doesn't mean that folks are gonna abandon the Baptist Church and become Muslims.

clem said...

Hey UMB!

Congrats on your 1,000!

A couple comments: Wasn't Hillary expected to take Pennsylvania? I think she's from there and has family there.

Bill Bennett is a hypocritical opportunist. Why is he on the air? A guy who makes his living lecturing American about "values," then turns out to have gambling debts out the wazoo should be considered discredited. Just like Rush "druggies should be kicked out of the country" Limbaugh.

I don't get it. Why would anyone want their phoney-baloney opinions.

Who the hell is Michael Fisher and how can someone be so out of touch with reality? Even if Obama isn't nominated, the fact that he came practically out of nowhere and, if not elected president, he has achieved contender status, damn hard for *anybody* to do regardless of race or background.

I don't know what Fisher talking about. It's clear that Obama is the choice of millions of whites. Twenty or thirty years ago that would have *never* happened.

Undercover Black Man said...

I said that Farrakhan will become the most influential black politician in the African-American community.

Still horseshit. I hope it won't have to be proven so.

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"If Obama doesn't win... that will mean that Obama didn't win.

He is not entitled to the presidency, Michael. He has to win it."


That's not what it is about. It's about the why, David.

To say what you said is the equivalent of a white person saying to a highly qualified black job applicant

""If you don't get the job... that will mean that you didn't get the job.

You're not entitled to the Job, Negro. You have to qualify for it."


See, David. This is exactly why I know you ain't got any kind of connect to the black community: You do not understand how the average African-American thinks.

Which explains things.

Michael Fisher said...

clem...

"Who the hell is Michael Fisher"

That's a hell of a question from a man or woman who hides their profile.

In any case.

"don't know what Fisher talking about. It's clear that Obama is the choice of millions of whites. Twenty or thirty years ago that would have *never* happened."

You think that at the end of the day black folks are gonna care about that? All they will know is that a viable, highly qualified supposedly acceptable candidate of theirs has been rejected by the majority of white America.

It's about the bottom line.

quirkychick said...

Hey Dave -

Congratulations on 1000.

I hope you put down the ciggies and never quit writing here.

Michael Fisher said...

oh, yeah, That right. Congrats on the 1000. You've been consistently entertaining and thought provoking.

GenevaGirl said...

UBM, many congratulations on your 1,000th! I've been much entertained from afar. Keep it up!

I'm a Philly girl through and through and followed my state's battle closely. And, yes, I voted by absentee ballot - twice. (Don't ask my why they sent me a provisional and a regular ballot.)

PA was a mess. I don't know what Clinton promised Rendell, but I was actually ashamed of his behavior. Obama blew it with Nutter by backing Fattah.

Who'd have thought that the rest of the world would care how the Keystone state voted? It's really captured a lot of attention overseas. I had a big argument after church on Sunday with some Caribbeans who have been following the race very closely. They swore that Obama was going to win or be very close. I sadly was right. I told them that I knew my state; PA wasn't going to come through. And we didn't.

A 5% loss would have been tolerable, but 10%? Why can't this guy, with his huge war chest just knock this thing out of the park?

On a funny note: My best friend works at a nursing home in Philly. She said that the residents were all in a tizzy about voting for Obama. Even the little, old white ladies? "They LOVE him! They think he's the new Kennedy!" Oh lawdy.

LeaNder said...

Gratulations from old Europe, David. Keep the good work up.

"I don't know what Fisher is talking about. It's clear that Obama is the choice of millions of whites. Twenty or thirty years ago that would have *never* happened."

Maybe Fisher should write a detailed blog about the State Of the Black Mind. As far as all important looks are concerned, he will no doubt explain why white girls love to get dark tans, if they do not consider this beautiful??? ...

Feels like a sick mental universe, you are living in dear Michael. Mirrors everywhere: splitting and projection? The black racists out there?

Krauts for Barack Obama: It would best that can happen to the US. Absolutely no doubt. Obama is the best news from America.

Wanda said...

congrats on 1000 UBM. Maybe one day I'll make it. I didn't bother watching the results last night, so I'll just read your post.

Antonio said...

UBM, you're most definitely looking at this through a different lens than I am. Yeah Clinton managed to win in PA by 10 points, but only by using disgusting and underhanded tactics. That little stunt drinking beer and doing shots with workers was so transparent it's laughable. Meanwhile Obama endured the overblown 'bitter' controversy and the Reverend Wright incident (a fiasco that would've sunk any other candidate) to still close her 20-point lead. Yeah she's a fighter, I just wish she didn't resort to crotch punches to knock down her opponent

Michael Fisher said...

leander...

"Feels like a sick mental universe, you are living in dear Michael. Mirrors everywhere: splitting and projection? The black racists out there?"

Leander I suggest you confront your people's vicious racism against German blacks, Turks, Jews, and other "Auslaender" before you weigh in on racism anywhere else.

M.Dot. said...

5:51 p.m. – Meanwhile, over on Fox News, Megyn Kelly’s lip gloss be poppin’...
===
priceless.

Working on a piece on Hillary's lack of a spine with regard to welfare/workfare....I think you may likey.

Undercover Black Man said...

M.Dot., welcome to my spot. I'll keep an eye on you.

Undercover Black Man said...

Fisher wrote: Barack Obama is Black America's reconciliation candidate. He's the peace pipe.

If that pipe is rejected...


I'm amazed that you don't understand how bizarrely twisted your attitude is, Michael.

Obama has been spending the entire campaign not presenting himself as Black America's candidate... not making this about some referendum on white guilt or black resentments.

Obama is running to be president of all Americans.

If white people defined Obama the way you define him -- as "Black America's reconciliation candidate" -- they'd drop him like a flaming bag of shit.

And why shouldn't they? This is about choosing a president.

Quit walking around as if America owes black people everything and black people owe America nothing.

Undercover Black Man said...

I hope you put down the ciggies...

Any day now, QuirkyChick. Thanks for the good wishes.

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"I'm amazed that you don't understand how bizarrely twisted your attitude is, Michael.

Obama has been spending the entire campaign not presenting himself as Black America's candidate... not making this about some referendum on white guilt or black resentments."


What Obama presents himself as and how black folks perceive him are two different things.

As far as black folks are concerned, Obama is a brother running for the Presidency of all America. Much like Kennedy was an Irishman running for the Presidency of all America.

"If white people defined Obama the way you define him -- as 'Black America's reconciliation candidate'

yes?

"-- they'd drop him like a flaming bag of shit."

And why would that be, David?

Looks to me that you, as an Undercover Black Man, have a lower reconciliation level than Gov. Ed Rendell.

"Quit walking around as if America owes black people everything and black people owe America nothing."

What exactly do black people owe America, David?

Undercover Black Man said...

What exactly do black people owe America, David?

The same thing every citizen owes to his or her nation. To devote oneself to the values of education, law-abidingness and work.

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"The same thing every citizen owes to his or her nation. To devote oneself to the values of education, law-abidingness and work."

I see. So it appears to be your position that I am saying that black folks should devote themselves to to the values of ignorance (non-education), lawlessness and idleness?

Another question.

Why, in your estimation, do Black folks owe America anything?

Bklyn6 said...

Happy 1000th post! Don't stop til' you get enough.

Undercover Black Man said...

So it appears to be your position that I am saying that black folks should devote themselves to to the values of ignorance (non-education), lawlessness and idleness?

Well, those things do seem to be a predictable consequence of a widespread attitude of resentment against mainstream society.

And you certainly do promote an attitude of resentment against mainstream society.

Why, in your estimation, do Black folks owe America anything?

Because this society has provided the means by which American Negroes have become the most prosperous population of black people on Earth.

These things should be obvious, Michael.

cuz said...

1,000. Wow! And that's before the 1st anniversary, no? Unless I'm losing count. Congratulations. Oh and about the 10 point win -- the campaign said all along they weren't expecting a win (it would've been lovely, but), the goal was to shrink that 20-25 point lead Clinton had in the polls in PA and to rake in what they (BO) could get out of the delegate. However you want to flip it both missions were accomplished. But it's still an up Hillary battle from here.

DeAngelo Starnes said...

A brotha gets back on the plantation and misses out on all the fun!

Road Dog, I gotta part company with you on Farrakhan. He ain't making a comeback.

I do agree that there may be a significant strain of resentment in the Black community, if somehow Barack is cheated out of the presidency, i.e. superdelegates and last minute injection of Michigan and Florida votes.

I'm with the commentor who mentioned a third party. I'm with that. Because if the Dems are the best hope of the working, middle, and lower classes, that's shit as those in Congress have proven since the time our votes gave them the majority.

Love the Thrilla in Manila analogy. Or is it a metaphor? Simile? Somebody help me out.

I don't like their tactics, but I gotta give credit where it's due. The Clintons are very good politicians.

Finally, let's not throw dirt on Barack. So he didn't score the knockout blow. Don't forget, this campaign was Hillary's to lose at the start of the whole Democrat presidential race. Barack emerged from a pack of very good and experienced candidates. After all, Biden has run a couple of times. Edwards ran before. Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich all had good experience in federal government - more than Barack.

And guess what? He's got a lead that will require Hillary to do the impossible to take the nomination from him.

Now, unless we find out that he's got a harem of naked underage white girls in the basement somewhere, she ain't gonna close the gap.

Then we set our sights on McCain.

No ding.

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"Because this society has provided the means by which American Negroes have become the most prosperous population of black people on Earth."

I see.

So let me ask you this. Do you agree or disagree with this statement by Patrick Buchanan?

"America has been the best country on earth for black folks. It was here that 600,000 black people, brought from Africa in slave ships, grew into a community of 40 million, were introduced to Christian salvation, and reached the greatest levels of freedom and prosperity blacks have ever known."

Now as to the "how" that was accomplished, do you agree or disagree with the following statement by Buchanan?

"no people anywhere has done more to lift up blacks than white Americans. Untold trillions have been spent since the '60s on welfare, food stamps, rent supplements, Section 8 housing, Pell grants, student loans, legal services, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credits and poverty programs designed to bring the African-American community into the mainstream."

Lastly, as to the current supposed state of the Black community, how do you, David Mills, answer Mr. Buchanan when he asks:

" Is white America really responsible for the fact that the crime and incarceration rates for African-Americans are seven times those of white America? Is it really white America's fault that illegitimacy in the African-American community has hit 70 percent and the black dropout rate from high schools in some cities has reached 50 percent?"

and

"Is that the fault of white America or, first and foremost, a failure of the black community itself?"

Michael Fisher said...

Deangelo...

"I do agree that there may be a significant strain of resentment in the Black community, if somehow Barack is cheated out of the presidency.

Alright, D. let's take this one point at a time.

First, why may there be "a significant strain of resentment in the Black community, if somehow Barack is cheated out of the presidency" in the first place?

And, by the way, welcome back.

DeAngelo Starnes said...

Road Dog, I believe the reason Black people will experience resentment is because, for once, we see a brotha doing his thing and winning. He's at the point now that it's pretty much a mathematical improbability that he will lose the nomination.

There are two ways for him to lose, and both have racism at the root.

First, white voters turn against him en masse. The only reason they would turn against him at this point is because of the media beat-down on Jeremiah Wright and the subliminal message that white America is not ready to be led by a Black man. Of course, it won't come out like that. It'll be coded in various forms of "qualifications" but a sudden shift in the numbers Hillary needs to win will suggest otherwise.

Second, the party powers throw the nomination Hillary's way. At the late date, that would be political suicide for the Dems. But again, it would be influenced by a feeling that white voters will get over Obama-Love and lean towards the tried-and-true - a white man as president.

Now, it won't matter if racism isn't the root cause. But the perception will be that it is. And that's gonna have a tsunami effect on Black voter disaffectation. And while the white voters represent a vast majority of the electorate, the Black vote is the margin of victory.

BTW, for the haters. If you gonna hate on my man, Fisher, do so with some intellect. Just cuz you don't agree, don't mean you attack. Support your shit. It's all good in the House of Love.

Love the UBM tv.

Ding! Since my Road Dog brought it out of me.

Michael Fisher said...

deangelo...

"There are two ways for him to lose, and both have racism at the root."

Ok.

Now question to you, David.

Do you agree with Deangelo's argument and conclusion? If no, why?

To D.

Given what you presented, and understanding, as I would assert, that people in general are prone to act on a mix of emotion underpinned by rational reasons, who do you think is best poised, organizationally and rhetorically, to capitalize of this "tsunami effect on Black voter disaffectation"

cuz said...

Fake it till you make it.

UBM. Girlfriend wasn't/isn't faking, she IS tough, but it just seems so personalized to the point of manic. Her highs are way high (when she wins); her lows are basement lows (when she doesn't win). People may take that as her human side. It's a bit over-the-top IMO. But I guess she chills when she gets what she wants. Running for Prez is a nutty job from get.

Lots of people are saying BO isn't tough enough, but you've got to be careful with the Hill and people have got to move beyond school yard punches. You can't fight her fight; gotta fight your fight. She'll whip out that gender card on BO in a hot minute and then let it spin into a 21st century version of "Birth of a Nation."

The Clintons are notorious for being vindictive and doing what ever it takes to destroy the person who they perceive is going to destroy or betray them. And of course, they're always the victims in every scenario. In the case of the impeachment and Kenneth Starr, that dude may have got what he deserved.

But I remember a guy telling me her campaign warned him that if he didn't get on board with her he'd never work in Washington again. Snap!

DeAngelo Starnes said...

Dog, the usual suspects will jump into whatever void there may appear to be available for manuevering of pissed-off energy disguised as leadership.

It might not be a thing where a figurehead is necessary or even sustainable. It would have to be a coalition of folks. And as was suggested by Kwame Ture's Black Power, multi-racial coalitions might form.

I think Obama has tapped enough youthful energy that if cultivated carefully, could sway many white voters away from the usual racist okey doke. Enough white voters supported Bush/Cheney on superficial issues rather than their self-interests that you have to be concerned. The younger voters haven't been so poisoned - yet. That energy needs to be tapped. We can kill off the vestiges of the so-called Reagan Revolution that's dominated American politics and economics for the last 28 years and get this thing turned back around.

I don't see Farrakhan being that person. I don't see Jesse being that person. I don't see Al Sharpton being that person. And I like all of those men and what they've done for Black Americans and what they've tried to do for Black American psyche. But Farrakhan's been off the scene for too long. And Jesse and Al have been painted as counter-productive so bad that people don't take them seriously. Even when they are spot on on the issues.

The person who could pull that together is a pissed-off Obama. That would be the shit. A pissed off Obama who said, "I've played crossover. I played nice. I played conciliatory. And that wasn't good enough. So fuck it. Let's take off the gloves."

He's walking a tightrope now to get that nomination. That's why he ain't body-slammed Hillary's ass. You know what happens to brothas when they're perceived to do something bad to the white woman.

Michael Fisher said...

Ok. Thanks for your answer, D. Now what about you, David?

quirkychick said...

What Cuz said about Hillary...

Those lows are like nails on a chalkboard and I wonder to myself is it because she's a woman that her sour grapes sound so bad? Would those words and that tone sound like they do if a man were saying them?

I'm wary of wading into the Fisher/Deangelo/UBM debate but I have to say I would like to see a pissed off Obama - I'm thinking he would be very powerful.

I'm kind of confused by the delegate counts and the conenpt of super delegates, but I'm thinking that if Obama has what he needs in popular vote to win the nomination and it goes to Hillary because of super delegates it isn't going to just be black folks that feel ripped off, it's going to be so many young people who are just starting to participate in this process who are going to have a bad taste in their mouth.

After 30 years of voting I can say that I am completely cynical about this process and while Obama definitely got the shriveled hope inside of me to lift it's weary head, it remains face down.

Undercover Black Man said...

Those lows are like nails on a chalkboard and I wonder to myself is it because she's a woman that her sour grapes sound so bad?

QuirkyChick, I don't know how much I'd attribute it to gender. I just get this feeling that Hillary and Bill together... going back 16 years... have this grey cloud of chaos following them around at all times...

Hillary campaigns chaotically... attacks chaotically... manages her team chaotically. And I expect she would govern chaotically.

That's the down side of her "I'm a fighter" persona. Who has a right to expect that the nastiness, the verbal parsing and the dishonesty would stop magically when Mrs. Clinton takes the Oath of Office?

... if Obama has what he needs in popular vote to win the nomination and it goes to Hillary because of super delegates it isn't going to just be black folks that feel ripped off...

This will depend on how the rest of it goes. If Obama ends weak while Clinton ends strong, the delegate math may not matter. Don't forget that Obama can't cross the "win" threshold without those superdelegates either...

And the superdelegates, by the rules, can vote however they want to vote...

It's on Obama to finish strong, and not allow Clinton to persuade the supers that he is fading as a candidate while she's "just gettin' warmed up."

Yeah, people will be pissed if Clinton somehow gets the nomination -- like you say, QuirkyChick, young whites as well as black folks. But if Obama finishes weak and Clinton finishes strong, I say this won't be viewed -- by rational people -- as "cheating" him out of it.

It will be viewed as Obama's failure to get the job done.

Undercover Black Man said...

DeAng, welcome back indeed. You always raise the energy level up around here.

Undercover Black Man said...

She'll whip out that gender card on BO in a hot minute and then let it spin into a 21st century version of "Birth of a Nation."

OHH!! Pungent! :^D

But I remember a guy telling me her campaign warned him that if he didn't get on board with her he'd never work in Washington again. Snap!

You know what, Cuz? Maybe it's that kinda crap that turned off Bill Richardson, Robert Reich, and all the other ex-Clinton Administration folkses who decided to join Team Obama.

Undercover Black Man said...

Fisher: Anybody ever tell you you ask a lotta questions? ;^)

1. I agree with Buchanan’s first statement... and I did as soon as I heard those words come out of his mouth in real time. America has been the best country on earth for black people.

Certainly better than here. Or here. Or here. Or here. Or here.

2. I disagree with Buchanan’s second statement, because those poverty programs weren’t designed to “lift up blacks” as blacks but to lift up poor people.

He should’ve mentioned the white abolitionist and philanthropic tradition, particularly among white Protestants, that led to the end of slavery, the establishment of the first HBCUs, and the formation of the NAACP and the Urban League. Whitey deserves credit for those things, though even they don’t quite justify Buchanan’s prideful claim that “no people anywhere has done more to lift up blacks than white Americans.”

3. I would answer Mr. Buchanan’s next questions by saying: “No, Mr. Buchanan, white America is not responsible for the vast disproportion of violent crime among black Americans. That is a failure of the black community itself.”

No, Michael, please don’t respond to this with more questions. Some counter-arguments, of course, would be most welcome.

elle said...

I'm gonna have to agree with Deange and Michael Fisher, Black people need to cut themselves away from the spineless democrats and form our own political movement that has our needs at hand first.

I would also like to see Obama take the Offensive, I'm tired of seeing Hillarity get off easy and talk all this crap about her being "tough". Take her down a few notches O man.

Michael Fisher said...

Well, thanks for your examples, David. Certainly looks like a bunch of people who act like savages throughout the world and have to be thankful for the civilizing influence of white folks in America, though, when left to their own devices, even here in the United States, these people tend to act just as savagely and are "responsible for the vast disproportion of violent crime among black Americans." That is, "a failure of the black community itself".

Welcome to the world of Lawrence Auster, stormfront.org, the KKK, and the Nazi party.

Michael Fisher said...

I've got a few things to take care off, then I'll be back and explain in detail why your reasoning is based on a logical fallacy.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ You mean a logical fallacy worse than guilt by association??

DeAngelo Starnes said...

Just watched Kobe decimate my Nuggets with 49 points and 10 assists.

It's a close race between him and Chris Paul for MVP.

Dave,

"Hillary campaigns chaotically... attacks chaotically... manages her team chaotically. And I expect she would govern chaotically ...

That's the down side of her "I'm a fighter" persona."

Amen, brother.

As for Obama finishing strong, he's still fundraising his ass off. If he still has the votes and the delegate lead, he still deserves the nomination, regardless of how strong Hillary finishes. You could argue that she should've never lost the lead she had going into the campaign where it was necessary to have a frantic finish. If the tables were turned, I don't think Obama could make a credible argument that he deserved the nomination because he finished strong if he doesn't have the popular vote or delegate lead.

The winner is the one who has the most points, not the one who had the better finish.

One more thing, Hillary's had her eye on the White House ever since Dubya took oath back in 2001. The move to the Senate was a springboard to where she is now. She built a machine and a monstrous warchest before she announced her candidacy. She had name recognition. If she delivered more definitive leadership during her time in the Senate, she would have this thing wrapped up. But she played licked finger in the wind politics the whole time Bush was running this country in the ground. What did she do with her position and influence in the Senate as Bush reversed everything her husband built? If her game was truly that tight, if she was truly a partner while Bill was the President, why wasn't she screaming as Bush trampled the Constitution and the economy?

That says volumes about her "experience" that she leans on. If I were Barack, I'd make that my theme until the end of this run.

Because while her campaign continues to cling to Barack being where he is because an affirmative action candidate (don't believe her weak denials), she's a worst offender, if you can call Barack an offender. Because all she's running on is name recognition and Bill's accomplishments. Because she ain't done anything significant while in the Senate. And she sure wasted her time as a high profile politician while this ape trashed this country.

DeAngelo Starnes said...

Oh, forgot to give you your p's for the 1000th post. Congrats for keeping it fresh, relevant, insightful, interesting, and extremely entertaining.

DeAngelo Starnes said...

I think this article by Monroe Andeson sums it all up very well.

Here's the link:

http://ebonyjet.com/politics/national/index.aspx?id=7167

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"You mean a logical fallacy worse than guilt by association??"

No, a logical fallacy in your reasoning which inevitably puts you in the company of the individuals and organizations cited above. It happens to most everyone who falls prey to it. You just took it to the logical conclusion while most folks stop somewhere before that, probably for fear of embarrassment or political incorrectness, I guess.

Like I said, I'll be back and explain.

fishesalot said...

Damn, UBM,Fisher,Starnes,

...you guys have been throwing down in this motha and I've missed it all. I'm with Fisher on much of this stuff but I can relate to UBM and Starnes' points too, ...I'm a "fence walker".

Bottom line is, being a Black person in America is a fucking struggle, be we dark/medium/light/near-white. It's tough for all of us because so much of our experience's are so heavily effected by centuries of slavery, it's lasting effects and how those effects have created various lingering pathological conditions in various segments of our communities. Add to that the persistant oppressive/controling white power machine and it's a wonder two Black people of any complexion or financial status agree on any of the topics and quetions that you guys have been discussing here. But then, the system has always been about divide and conquer.

So, to that I say "nigga's is a beautiful thing" and congrats UBM on 1000 posts, I have learned much from your blogs!

I love all you guys up in he-ya!

Peace

Edshugeo The GodMoor said...

A belated happy 1000th to Mr. Mills and all the great commentators. I love these long ass threads. I only wish MemoMachine was still around, though he got a little annoying at the end.

Michael Fisher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael Fisher said...

The logical fallacy...

Ok. let's begin.

What you are describing, David, are behaviors.

Now the crucial questions are this:

Who behaves?

and,

What is the source of these behaviors?

Let's first go to "who behaves".

You've linked to a number of places where there are people whom you define as "black".

Problem is, biologically there ain't such a thing as a "black people".

Unless you can provide us with objective (objective like "the earth travels around the sun") scientific proof for the existence of a "black" group of human beings, you are pointing to something that does not exist - except in a socio-political sense.

Thus your first logical fallacy.

Now, let's go to the second question.

"What is the source of these behaviors?"

Since there is no such thing as a biological "black people", the source of the "black people behavior" can not be biological.

Since the source of this behavior can not be biological, each "black person" that exhibits "black behavior" must have somehow been trained to exhibit such behavior.

You with me?

Ok. before I go on. let me know what you think of what I stated until now.

Undercover Black Man said...

^ The major problem I have with what you've written so far is that, earlier in this thread, you asked me a question that pre-supposes that black people do, in fact, exist.

To wit: Why, in your estimation, do Black folks owe America anything?

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"The major problem I have with what you've written so far is that, earlier in this thread, you asked me a question that pre-supposes that black people do, in fact, exist."

Oh, they do exist. As a socio-political group.

However, do you agree that they do not exist as a biological group?

Undercover Black Man said...

However, do you agree that they do not exist as a biological group?

Simply put: no, I do not agree.

Here's why.

The essence of biology is what: the genome. The means by which genetic information is passed from generation to generation.

A scientist, without ever seeing a picture of you, Michael, or asking you any questions, can look at your DNA and determine how much of your ancestry is Northern European, West African, Amerindian, East Asian or Ashkenazi.

Therefore, there MUST be BIOLOGICAL differences between those human subgroups because their DNA is distinguishable.

Michael Fisher said...

Is that so David?

Well then tell me what is the objective biological marker for "race" in accordance with the definition you have provided. Since it is you who has taken us around the world with your picture show.

Is it skin color? (on a chromatic scale, what exact shade, please)

Hair color?(on a chromatic scale, what exact shade, please)

eye color?(on a chromatic scale, what exact shade, please)


Nose size? (which exact size, please)

Nose shape? (which exact shape, please)

Lip size?(which exact size, please)

Lip shape?( which exact shape, please)

or maybe

anus diameter?

left-pinky toe length?

left ear size?

What are the objective, non-arbitrarily chosen, biological markers which you chose that are common to all of the people you featured in your links that you can, with 100% confidence say they constitute a biological group?

And don't throw it over to some nebulous "scientists" since it is you who has made these choices/categorizations as per your links.

Undercover Black Man said...

Michael, why don't you want to address the matter of whether or not the United States is the best country on earth for black people?

Michael Fisher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael Fisher said...

We'll get to that, David. However, one step at a time. We first have to understand what "black people" is.

Now, you've posited that this group of people are a biological subset of humans. And you provided links to various geographic regions where this subset supposedly exists.

Thus you should easily be able to answer my previous question at 11:45. Right?

Undercover Black Man said...

^ I have to prove to you that black people exist before you'll respond to my answer to your question about black people in America?

Sorry, Michael. I won't play.

Undercover Black Man said...

Maybe here's a way to move this conversation along:

Do you, Michael Fisher, feel any sort of kinship -- culturally and/or politically -- to the people of Zimbabwe, Liberia, Somalia, Haiti and Jamaica?

Undercover Black Man said...

And can we agree, Michael, that black people as a "socio-political group" are better off in the United States than anywhere else on the planet?

Michael Fisher said...

Mills...

"I have to prove to you that black people exist before you'll respond to my answer to your question about black people in America?

Sorry, Michael. I won't play"


Well, David, all I did was ask you a question about Buchanan's statement. It was you who took this thing in the direction of "black people have it better in America than here, here, and here", Which various "heres" pointed to a diverse group of people all of whom you defined as "black".

Since you did the defining, you ought to be able to do the proving (your definition). Since you are not able to prove it, please don't disambiguate by making a statement such as "Sorry, Michael. I won't play". It is a dishonest approach to this most serious discussion. Be as rigorous in you analysis as you are capable of being. You are too intelligent to go out like that.

Just admit that you can't make your biological definition work and let's go from there.

Ok. Next question...

"Do you, Michael Fisher, feel any sort of kinship -- culturally and/or politically -- to the people of Zimbabwe, Liberia, Somalia, Haiti and Jamaica?"

Sure, to the extent to which they are, like I am, a victim of the global System of Racism/White Supremacy.

"And can we agree, Michael, that black people as a "socio-political group" are better off in the United States than anywhere else on the planet?"

Not really. They are probably better off in Germany and Sweden.

However, I assume you are trying to get to the comparative living standard of "black" people in Haiti and such vs that of "black" people in the United States.

Sure the living standard tends to be much better.

What's your point?

Michael Fisher said...

Oh, and David. Maybe you can help me out with this conundrum.

Michael Fisher said...

Well, guv'nor?

What's your point?