Friday, April 25, 2008

If Hillary gets the nomination...

... it could be the best thing that ever happened to Barack Obama.

Before I explain why, let’s consider the remarkable change in the political atmosphere since Sen. Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday.

For the past three months, the mainstream media and the punditocracy have spoken about Obama in tones of awe. Chris Matthews compared him to Abraham Lincoln (after the race speech).

But on “Hardball” yesterday, Matthews said that Obama “doesn’t have the knack for walking into a diner with regular people and connecting.”

Matthews also said: “If he can’t fight better than [Hillary], he will lose to her.” Regarding Jeremiah Wright, he said: “This is [Obama’s] Iraq.”

“Hardball” guest Bob Herbert, a New York Times columnist, said yesterday that “the bloom is off of” Barack Obama. “I think he has stumbled badly on the patriotism issue.”

Herbert also said there are “questions about whether Obama has that same fighting spirit” as Hillary Clinton.

That’s how fast the game can change.

Now... let’s suppose Obama finishes weak and Clinton finishes strong.

Suppose she gets the nomination by convincing enough superdelegates that she is the Democrats’ best hope against John McCain.

If that happens, she will lose in November. There is no way she can get a majority of Americans to vote for her. Especially with many disenchanted black Democrats and party activists hating on her.

Hillary will lose, and that is the end of Clintonism, period, close the book.

Barack Obama can run again. In four years or eight years... whenever. He will be incalculably wiser for having gone through this battle.

And when he runs again, the Democratic big chiefs will be sorry they hadn’t cast their lot with him in 2008, instead of with the loser Hillary Clinton.

Okay, let’s flip it. Let’s say that Obama gets the nomination this year. And let’s say he loses to McCain, having been weakened and bloodied by the Clintons. If that happens, Obama can’t run again. He’ll have that stench of defeat on him.

And Hillary Clinton will run again in 2012, saying that the Democratic big chiefs should’ve backed her instead of Obama in 2008.

I am rooting for Obama to finish this primary season strong. I’d like to see him defeat John McCain.

But if he doesn’t get that chance, I won’t be shedding tears.

Am I making sense?

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

I totally agree. I am sick to death of this whole process. I knew it was going to get ugly, but it doesn't make it easier, espeically when you like the candidate you're rooting for. So let Hillary and her lot implode, maybe that's the only way to get rid of them. I hate seeing a decent black candidate get torn down over pure BS (Rev. Wright, "Biiter," etc.) I agree, he's young enough that he can run again in '12. Personally, though, if he did get the nom., I can't see how he could lose to McCain. I mean, that's like putting Mr. Burns(from the Simpsons) up against Batman.

Michael Fisher said...

No, it doesn't make sense because John McCain is an extra-ordinarily weak candidate. Once the actual general election fight starts, McCain is gonna face a storm that makes the Wright issue look like a tempest in a tea pot.

McCain is largely running on his Vietnam War hero image. fact is, however, that he was the Vietnam War's Tokyo Rose in so many ways.

Then there is the Keating scandal, his physical attacks on colleagues, his abandoning his disabled ex-wife who waited for him to return from captivity. The footage that the North Vietnamese have of him fucking a special "nurse" assigned to him during his capture, etc.

Plus his personality negatives are way out there, and he is running at a time when the economy is going down the drain like the Titanic.

When the Republicans nominated McCain it was clear to me that they had no plans to capture the Presidency this time. He is absolutely the worst candidate they could have chosen.

Once the Democratic machine gets going, the guy is gonna be crushed. The guy wouldn't make it in a dog catcher election. Mark my word.

Clinton would win against him even without the black vote.

She knows that very well.

Big Man said...

Michelle Obama has already said that she doesn't want to do this again. So, if Obama loses, he loses forever. At least if he follows his wife's plan.

I agree with your reasoning, but I'm pretty sure the same racism that's a problem now, will be a problem in 2012.

cuz said...

UBM - interesting.

Re McCain as weak candidate- are these some of the McCain bits from the Bush campaign in 2000? I do agree, the Vietnam story hasn't been explored deeply if at all. There was a PBS doc years ago with McCain and several others from the Hanoi Hilton. But POWs are a sensitive topic. However, I think we're living in complicated times so the simple hero story may not play as well as it did before 2001. Unless his buddies in the MSM want to stay in his good graces through November. They love him for now. But interesting too.

re Michelle. Yes. I heard that one...unless her mouth says "no" but her eyes say "yes."

All of the above. I appreciate these perspectives. They keep me from going totally nuts. looks like anything can happen in 2008.

New Black Woman said...

I think if Clinton does get the nomination, it would be a toss up. Why? Both Sens. Clinton and McCain can't rally their bases enough to have a strong pull. They both don't excite the American public.

I don't see conservatives rallying around McCain and I don't see liberals clamoring for Clinton.

Undercover Black Man said...

I don't see conservatives rallying around McCain and I don't see liberals clamoring for Clinton.

Yeah, New Black Woman, but I can see conservatives rallying against Clinton... and liberals clamoring against McCain.

It seems like Obama is the only candidate this year who has voters fired up for something.

I hope he finishes strong against Hillary.

quirkychick said...

I think that there would be conservatives that would refuse to vote for McCain and liberals that would refuse to vote for Hillary so the turn out might be low.

McCain and Hillary have kind of morphed into the same thing in my opinion. I liked McCain in 2000, but then it turned out he's crazy (so I guess we dodged a bullet there) and I liked Hillary back in the day when she still seemed to have ideals that meant something to her, but now she seems to be using her powers (and she does have them) for evil, or at least a level of mean that doesn't serve anyone, least of all herself or her party.

I would love nothing more than for Obama to win the whole shootin' match but then I worry about what winning would turn him into.

What would be the price of victory? Who would he have to be to get anything done in DC?

Antonio said...

It doesn't make sense to me. What you've put out there is one example of how it could work out for Obama if he loses the nomination (which is very unlikely because of how Hillary matches up against McCain). If McCain won, it could be that his presidency does pretty well. Or the Republican base could be re-energized in 4 or 8 years. Or in 4 or 8 years Obama could be unable to recreate the energy he had the last few months.

There's a lot of assumptions you have to make to get from Barack losing the nom now to Barack winning in 2008/12.

Kellybelle said...

I hear you with my head, but it makes my heart hurt. Still, I almost want her defeated and put away. But she's like Jason; she'll come back. Death couldn't keep her from the White House.

Malcolm said...

I think that once Obama wins the nomination, winning in November will be pretty easy.

People want change. McCain, even though he is an honorable man (and nowhere near as bad as Bush), will be perceived as just more of the same.

As a Republican (at least until now), I can assure you of this: the only thing that can unite the Republican party is Hillary winning the nomination. If she wins the nomination, she WILL lose in November.

However, there are many republicans (like myself), who are more than willing to wait in line to vote for Obama.

This importance of this election is well beyond the normal political lines.

The next four years will decide the long-term future of this country; and frankly any change would be a step in the right direction.

triracialbro said...

Wake up people, this country will never accept a woman or a Black man as president. True, everyone is tripping right now over the prospect of Hillary or Obama winning the presidency, and this pervasive touchy-feely 'change is a coming' vibe abounds, but it is slowly but surely running it's course. Meantime, the GOP machine and it's attack dogs are simply resting and watching as the Dems tear each other apart, and as tidbits of flesh fall outside the boxing ring, the GOP talking heads feed those chunks back to John Q, wetting it's appetite for the ravenous feast to come later.

True, McCain may be weak but you can bet that the vast majority of Whites, Asians, Hispanics, East Indians, Euros, Greeks, etc. (pissed of Blacks/Whites) will surely punch the GOP chad once in the privacy of the voting both. They will never, ever put a Barack or a Hillary in office because they are incapable of getting past the sterotype of what they think a Black man is fundamentally, and they all basically hate Hillary. In addition, compared to McCain, anyone could see that Bush was retarded as early as 2000 yet they voted him in twice - so who are the real idiots here?. The GOP and it's hoards are sleepers now, just waiting to build their idiocracy.

Face it, this country is jacked up. The majority of folk here brainwashed programmable droids, and no matter how bad the economy gets, gas prices get, the war gets, the environment gets, illegal immigration gets, etc., these folk will put a GOP asshole in over a Dem everytime, all it takes is a diet of Rev. Wright, or a meal of Obama's missing flag pin, or a stream of lies from Hillary, ...it's about the capacity of the GOP talking heads to puff up hate. This will be particulary true once the GOP fires up it's media machine and starts uploading their next viral campaign program into the minds of the sleeping droids!

Mark my word come November, McCain will win!

odocoileus said...

Obama has to make his move now. He has to seize the moment. That's what leadership is. The hole opens up, you blast through it or die trying.

No one can tell what the future holds, as Hillary and her advisers found out the hard way.

If Obama wins Indy and NC, Hillary's out of the race. If he can't win in Indy, where he's currently dead even, then he may not be electable anywhere, at any time.

He overcame a twenty point deficit in PA. If he can just do half as well in Indy, he'll win by a comfortable margin.

jjbrock said...

@Big man I heard the same thing but it was Obama saying he would not do it again. Hell! who can blame him for that statement.

Albany Dem said...

I'm with Malcolm and anonymous on the campaign politics. Obama beats McCain.

But what damage is caused if McCain does become President? My stomach turns at the thought even more than it does if Clinton wins.

Too many people were thinking the same way in 2000 and 2004, "oh if we lose this time, we'll win bigger next." No we won't.

Anonymous said...

If Dems lose this election, why believe in the party at all? This much public anger, two strong candidates and a weak opponent, and we lose anyway?

If the Dems lose, time for a real alternative. Bring the Whigs back or something. But the Dems become the party of permanent losers.

Dougfp said...

If McCain wins against either of them, we'll still be in Iraq four years from now, another thousand or so soldiers will be dead, and another knuckle-walker like Scalia will be deciding the fate of Roe V. Wade.

The issues do matter, right?

Anonymous said...

The issues don't matter, and never have. What matters is insuring that a White conservative male is president.

Dougfp said...

^ Sad, but true...

Anonymous said...

^ Dougfp, unfortunately it is sad but true.

The elite powers that be have always run this country and "we the people" are nothing but low-wage slaves and soldiers who tend the crops, pay share cropper taxes, and defend the masters turf.

The scary thing is that if the people end up putting Obama in via the popular vote, the ruling families will just get someone to blow his cabage back just like they did Kennedy, King, Lincoln, etc. However, I'm quite sure that Obama will be fine because after the conservative media completes it's phase of the campaign by brainwashing the public, McCain will be Pres. anyway.

History shows that any significant degree of true change in the balance of power in a society only comes thru revolt and violence, and most of us are too fat and comfortable to take up arms.

Enjoy the dream folks!

ItAintEazy said...

Makes me wonder why Obama would be viable candidate to win the presidency if he can't even win his own party's nomination.

Undercover Black Man said...

... and most of us are too fat and comfortable to take up arms.

Tell it! [Wipes donut glaze from around lips]

Thembi said...

I agree with michael fisher - McCain can be taken apart rather easiliy. The Negrodamus in me predicts that he'll get about one syllable through the appropriate slur for whoever he's up against in the first debate. We also shouldn't confuse Clinton beating Obama in big states with his ability to beat McCain. Anyone concerned about the economy will hopefully see through his weak economic plan (or true lack thereof).

@ubm
I'm fat and comfy but the time has come get involved - the price of Tastycakes is up to $1.29! Something must be done.

Anonymous said...

I don't know, man.
I think the point of no return on this place may be at the last mile marker (2004). If McCain wins, I'm not sure there's going to be a viable country to preside over in 2012.
The price of Tastycakes is just one sign that the oil is running out. And we don't have a plan B.

maria said...

omg, DM. could we please envision a scenario in which BO gets the nomination and wins?

if not, heaven help us. wake me when it's over. if there is a me. if it is ever over.

www3--invasion of iran--is what mccain will do. mathews is a man without a country. don't give him more ink. see the nytimes profile that your old bud at the wapo wrote.

he must be stopped. that's the doomsday scenario.

Anonymous said...

Here's how it will unfold.

Obama or Hillary will win the nomination. The non-pissed-off half of us Democrats will plan on voting for our man/woman. The GOP media machine and the pissed-off Democrats will swell McCains' numbers. Finally, the elections will be clinched after the Republicans let another staged terrorist attack happen in the US, capture the acceptable group of culprits, and subsequently pump-up the fear and the idea that the Dems are soft on terror. They may even throw in their ace-in-the-hole and capture Bin Laden:-0

McCain will win because America's ruling class gets fat on the profits and spoils of war, and McCain wants to continue to get paid, plus he wants revenge.

In an ideal America, Obama would be accepted as the best candidate and he would win a in a fair election. He would proceed to make America a better place for all Americans, and America would be supportive of his policies. However this is not an ideal America.

This is an America where the pundits are still driving the Rev.Wright issue down our throats week after week - and no one does shit about it!

This is an America where a Black man can be shot fifty times by police for no reason, only to see the cops go free - and no one does shit about it!

This is an America where consecutive elections have been rigged and stolen, and nothing happens and no one revolts. Shit, the supreme court even help rig the shit - and no one does shit about it!

This is an America where the idea of "white is right and Black get back" is still very much alive - whether most of you accept it or not doesn't matter because it's very much alive here.

This is an America where the government pays farmers not to grow food so that the corporations jack up prices and get fat even as the people starve - and no one does shit about it!

And lastly, this is an America that has always been ruled by white men that view America and the world as their oyster, and it doesn't matter how retarded/stupid/dumb/old these men are, they run it and they'll always run it because - no one really does shit about it!

So folks, enjoy the show, but if you really want to make some change, get yourselves some guns and join a militia or something, and find some one to help you REALLY do something about it!

PEACE

EDP said...

I am right there with you. Frankly, the last eight years have been so shitty that I almost feel sorry for whoever winds up in the Oval Office next. I want to be excited about the possibility of Obama winning, but I'm running low on optimism about our country's future. I hope I'm wrong.