Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Is Edwards quitting for Obama’s benefit?

I just woke up. I haven’t hit the political websites or turned on MSNBC. Just heard on the radio that John Edwards is dropping out of the presidential race today.

Shocker! Who saw that coming? Nobody, that’s who.

So I wanna put my own amateur analysis out there... see how it stacks up against the real thing, which we’ll be bombarded with on TV all week.

Timing-wise, I suspect Edwards is quitting now to benefit Barack Obama on Super Tuesday.

Think about it. The 10 to 15 percent of voters who’ve gravitated towards Edwards have already decided they’re not wild about Hillary, they want to go another direction. Right?

Edwards steps aside now... to give Obama a boost in next week’s Big Throwdown. Allow Barack and Hillary to debate one-on-one. Right?

A hardcore feminist might call this a typical patriarchal move, ganging up against the girl. (Rapist! Footbinder!) Whatever it is, it changes the game in a fascinating way.

UPDATE (01/30/08): Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza reports this piece of instant punditry from Charlie Cook:

"While one can plausibly argue that Edwards withdrawal may unite the anti-Clinton vote, one can also argue that Edwards overwhelmingly white block of supporters come loose and might behave much as other white Democrats have done in the contests after Iowa, not vote for Obama. I don't know which of those arguments will prevail."

16 comments:

eeaster said...

Actually, unless he aggressively turns his voters over to Barack (which they may or may not do), he actually frees up white votes for Hillary.

Just another way to consider it.

Wanda said...

I would hope that he pushes his voters towards Barack (which I thought he should have did after New Hampshire, but anyway), which could really help Barack on Super Tuesday.

It would totally depend though, on which candidate (Obama/Clinton) has approached Edwards with a VP slot.

Since Guiliani is throwing to McCain, I wouldn't be surprised if we found out who Edwards was throwing to in a couple days.

The Obenson Report said...

I'm not surprised. He's always faced an uphill battle against Clinton and Obama. He was never able to overcome their mass appeal and individual political resumes.

Maybe the shock is primarily due to the fact that he said quite vehemently that he'd stay in the race until the convention. But it was an inevitable move. The most definitive reason for his candidacy (that Hilary or Barack stumble along the way) gradually became less likely.

I think he'll eventually endorse Obama.

Elwood said...

John Edwards for Attorney General!

GenevaGirl said...

Edwards leaving will probably help Hillary or a Republican. He did best with white men.

I heartbroken. I had intended to vote for Edwards since Richardson and Dodd dropped out. I had supported him in '04.

I was torn between voting for Edwards and Obama because although I'm not in love with Obama he had the best chance of taking her out. SInce I vote with PA at the end of April, I was going to wait and see how things played out.

If Edwards endorses Obama or keeps his mouth shut he could end up as attorney general. I see either Richardson or Biden as Sec. of State. I'd love to see the white, female governor (name?) who gave the state of the union rebuttal, or another female gov. be Obama's running mate. Steinem could shove that in her hat.

And, no, I'm not one of those women who hate successful women. I just don't like her, her views or her tactics.

Andy said...

This is definitely shaping up to be an interesting primary season. It's actually interesting.

The conspiracy theorists are saying the McCain vs. Clinton run was decided 7 years ago, with McCain winning (which I think he would over Hillary). But hey, those people are all crazy.

I hope Barack pulls through and kicks Hillary's ass, since she is so frequently showing it these days.

I'd easily vote for an Obama/Edwards ticket.

People Power Granny said...

Check out my post on Edwards withdrawal from the race, which I hated. I'm at http://peoplepowergranny.blogspot.com. Readers can also vote in my poll on what they think he'll do next.

Undercover Black Man said...

... he actually frees up white votes for Hillary.

Hey Eric. I guess this is what's called the White Man's Dilemma, huh? Hillary or Barack.

I got a feeling that the hard-feminist undertones of the Clinton campaign could be more of a turn-off to white males than Obama's mocha complexion.

Undercover Black Man said...

Since Guiliani is throwing to McCain, I wouldn't be surprised if we found out who Edwards was throwing to in a couple days.

Yeah, Wanda, if he's gonna do it, it would make since for him to do it before Super Tuesday... so this endorsement could really count for something.

Undercover Black Man said...

He was never able to overcome their mass appeal and individual political resumes.

Welcome, Mr. Obenson. I must admit, something always rubbed me wrong about John Edwards. Not calling him insincere... but his populist, "class warfare" pitch struck me as a bit calculated. Inorganic.

Lola Gets said...

I am sad to see Edwards go - I liked the dude (well, as much as Id like any politician I wasnt related to, lol)!

One article I read in the Washington Post said that in SC, Obama got more white male votes and Clinton got more white female votes. To me, it looks like a toss-up. Unless we can figure out a way to "de-Blackify" Obama, hehehe.

L

dez said...

Unless we can figure out a way to "de-Blackify" Obama, hehehe.

Michael Jackson can help him out with that ;^D

Honestly, if I thought it would do any good, I'd throw my vote to Gravel. He's a kook, but he's my kind of kook.

JE said...

First, great site: I've been reading for a while.

Edwards dropping out of the race I feel will ultimately be a bad thing for Obama unless Edwards "actively" endorses Obama.

Words of support are great, but it will take Edwards actually hitting the pavement in support to really rally his supporters to the "O" train.

Undercover Black Man said...

dez: Gravel is a cool kind of nutty. Whilst scanning YouTube for campaign videos, I came across this homemade item from Gravel, going after the Creationst/"intelligent design" crowd.

Pretty weird to see a major-party candidate shooting a campaign video using his personal webcam... but he talks sense.

Undercover Black Man said...

JE: Welcome to my spot. Thanks for commenting.

I guess I shouldn't have expected Edwards to endorse right away. If he times it right, he could get pretty much get anything he wants from Clinton or Obama.

dez said...

^If not Veep, then Attorney General, or so the speculation goes.

Thanks for the Gravel link. I saw him on Bill Maher's show and just loved how honest he was. Which of course meant he had no shot in hell of getting the nom (okay, there are other reasons, but the honesty one is big).